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Statistics and Lies 14:18 - Aug 21 with 495 viewsBazza

The Office of National Statistics have just announced that their latest numbers (for 15/16) were underestimated for EU immigrants by 16% but overestimated for non-EU immigrants. A cynic might suggest there was a political motive ho-hum?
Also how the hell do all the voting stats virtually stated as 'Fact' show the breakdown percentages (age/education/ethnicity/biscuit preference etc) that voted for each political party when the ballots are secret? Guesswork/crystal ball/mystic Meg or same discredited models used by economists?
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Statistics and Lies on 16:16 - Aug 21 with 426 viewsfranniesTache

No idea on the first question but the second part is relatively straight forward. The ONS and other pollsters do exit interviews on the way out of polling stations, their obvious flaw is that you have to want to take part (since as you say voting is done in secret) and will often bias towards young and left leaning since older and more right leaning people are less likely to share their vote with an exit pollster.

Also as far as i'm aware they're never passed off as fact, only as results from an exit poll, though you can make a relatively good guess as to what that means if the sample size is big enough.

I thought this sort of stuff was pretty well known btw, i'm sure i was taught it in secondary school and i went to Cantell.
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Statistics and Lies on 17:11 - Aug 21 with 396 viewsBazza

Statistics and Lies on 16:16 - Aug 21 by franniesTache

No idea on the first question but the second part is relatively straight forward. The ONS and other pollsters do exit interviews on the way out of polling stations, their obvious flaw is that you have to want to take part (since as you say voting is done in secret) and will often bias towards young and left leaning since older and more right leaning people are less likely to share their vote with an exit pollster.

Also as far as i'm aware they're never passed off as fact, only as results from an exit poll, though you can make a relatively good guess as to what that means if the sample size is big enough.

I thought this sort of stuff was pretty well known btw, i'm sure i was taught it in secondary school and i went to Cantell.


I appreciate your comment on exit polls and as you suggest they are biased samples, and the sample size is too small to be statistically valid.
But I wish I had a pound for every time I heard a politician or Matlis & crew state General Election or Referendum voting analyses as if they were fact, or any sensible basis for a debate.......
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Statistics and Lies on 17:20 - Aug 21 with 391 viewsChesham_Saint

Statistics and Lies on 16:16 - Aug 21 by franniesTache

No idea on the first question but the second part is relatively straight forward. The ONS and other pollsters do exit interviews on the way out of polling stations, their obvious flaw is that you have to want to take part (since as you say voting is done in secret) and will often bias towards young and left leaning since older and more right leaning people are less likely to share their vote with an exit pollster.

Also as far as i'm aware they're never passed off as fact, only as results from an exit poll, though you can make a relatively good guess as to what that means if the sample size is big enough.

I thought this sort of stuff was pretty well known btw, i'm sure i was taught it in secondary school and i went to Cantell.


Anybody who asks me as I leave the polling station gets the exact opposite info to what I’ve actually done. I just can’t help myself...

Poll: Which manager would you prefer Saints to have?

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Statistics and Lies on 20:16 - Aug 22 with 232 viewsGasGiant

Statistics and Lies on 16:16 - Aug 21 by franniesTache

No idea on the first question but the second part is relatively straight forward. The ONS and other pollsters do exit interviews on the way out of polling stations, their obvious flaw is that you have to want to take part (since as you say voting is done in secret) and will often bias towards young and left leaning since older and more right leaning people are less likely to share their vote with an exit pollster.

Also as far as i'm aware they're never passed off as fact, only as results from an exit poll, though you can make a relatively good guess as to what that means if the sample size is big enough.

I thought this sort of stuff was pretty well known btw, i'm sure i was taught it in secondary school and i went to Cantell.


The ONS does not do 'Exit polls'
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