| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 10:46 - Nov 2 with 1537 views | dirk_doone |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 10:02 - Nov 2 by Sadoldgit |
Will we ever get rid of him? It doesn’t look like it anytime soon.
Still, we have something for more interesting to get excited about. Which cabinet minister leaked the news about the lockdown? Apparently it is one of Gove, Sunak or Hancock. Peter Panemic doesn’t have the gumption. Gove has previous with stabbing a Johnson in the back and clearly fancies his chances as the next PM but a good outside bet could be Smiling Sunak. Apparently he is doing all the “right things” behind the seems to manoeuvre himself into contention when Johnson gets ditched. |
Are the Russians still paying him? He used to receive his roubles via Arron Banks. |  |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 11:35 - Nov 2 with 1512 views | Bison |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 10:02 - Nov 2 by Sadoldgit |
Will we ever get rid of him? It doesn’t look like it anytime soon.
Still, we have something for more interesting to get excited about. Which cabinet minister leaked the news about the lockdown? Apparently it is one of Gove, Sunak or Hancock. Peter Panemic doesn’t have the gumption. Gove has previous with stabbing a Johnson in the back and clearly fancies his chances as the next PM but a good outside bet could be Smiling Sunak. Apparently he is doing all the “right things” behind the seems to manoeuvre himself into contention when Johnson gets ditched. |
Out of interest if Boris does quit who would get your vote for for the next Prime Minister
9/4
Rishi Sunak
6/1
Michael Gove
12/1
Jeremy Hunt
20/1
Dominic Raab
20/1
Priti Patel
25/1
Sajid Javid
25/1
Tom Tugendhat
50/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg
50/1
James Cleverly
50/1
Matthew Hancock
50/1
Nigel Farage
50/1 |  |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 13:02 - Nov 2 with 1482 views | Sadoldgit |
I want them out at the next election of course, so my vote would go to either of the two most odious choices being Gove or Patel. The one who would worry me the most as he has shown he has some principles is Javid. |  | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 13:31 - Nov 2 with 1473 views | DorsetIan |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 11:35 - Nov 2 by Bison |
Out of interest if Boris does quit who would get your vote for for the next Prime Minister
9/4
Rishi Sunak
6/1
Michael Gove
12/1
Jeremy Hunt
20/1
Dominic Raab
20/1
Priti Patel
25/1
Sajid Javid
25/1
Tom Tugendhat
50/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg
50/1
James Cleverly
50/1
Matthew Hancock
50/1
Nigel Farage
50/1 |
Sunak (complete lightweight), Gove (the shiftiest man in England) and then a bloke who's not even in the Cabinet. Tells you all you need to know about this ship of fools.
And anybody who thinks that anyone other than Boris could retain those Northern seats for the Conservatives is in cloud cuckoo land. |  |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 15:57 - Nov 2 with 1436 views | kentsouthampton |
How accurate is the modelling?
by Ross Clark ( Spectator )
The graph presented by chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance during Saturday’s press briefing suggested that, in the absence of a new lockdown, deaths from Covid-19 could reach 4,000 a day by Christmas. To put this scenario in context, deaths in the first peak back in April peaked at just over 1,000 a day.
Back in spring, a pre-publication copy of Neil Ferguson’s paper — the Imperial College London modelling of Covid-19 deaths which sent Britain into the first lockdown — was released, so we could all see the assumptions and reasoning behind it. Saturday’s graph did not even reveal the source of the 4,000 deaths a day claim — although it has subsequently been revealed to be a Cambridge/Public Health England (PHE) estimate.
Now, Daniel Howdon, a research fellow at the Leeds Institute of Health Sciences and Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, have discovered that the Cambridge/PHE graph dates from three weeks ago. The pair have analysed the data and deduced that it predicted that deaths would be running at 1,000 a day by 1 November — i.e. yesterday. In fact, deaths have not turned out to be at anything like that level. The average for the past seven days (which smoothes out the ‘weekend effect’) is 214 deaths per day.
The other graphs presented on Saturday, according to Howdon and Heneghan, are also at least three weeks old. The second most frightening projection came from Imperial College London, which showed deaths peaking at just over 2,500 a day by January. This scenario also showed that deaths would be running at 486 a day by 1 November — more than twice as high as has happened in practice. The London School and Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and University of Warwick projections, which showed deaths peaking at around 2,000 a day predicted 266 and 234 deaths a day by 1 November respectively.
Howdon and Heneghan point to their own preferred mortality projections, published by the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge. These only go two weeks ahead, due to the huge uncertainties involved in trying to make forecasts further into the future. Pointedly, its predictions have been falling in the past three weeks: on 12 October it predicted 588 deaths for 30 October. By 21 October it was predicting 324 deaths for 31 October. Even that has turned out to be 50 per cent higher than the reality.
Why, then, did the government present us with graphs based on studies which have already proven to be overly pessimistic? The very small print at the bottom of the graphs presented by Sir Patrick Vallance described them as ‘scenarios’ and not predictions. Nevertheless, that is exactly how they will have been taken by many viewers. |  | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 16:24 - Nov 2 with 1425 views | Chesham_Saint |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 15:57 - Nov 2 by kentsouthampton |
How accurate is the modelling?
by Ross Clark ( Spectator )
The graph presented by chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance during Saturday’s press briefing suggested that, in the absence of a new lockdown, deaths from Covid-19 could reach 4,000 a day by Christmas. To put this scenario in context, deaths in the first peak back in April peaked at just over 1,000 a day.
Back in spring, a pre-publication copy of Neil Ferguson’s paper — the Imperial College London modelling of Covid-19 deaths which sent Britain into the first lockdown — was released, so we could all see the assumptions and reasoning behind it. Saturday’s graph did not even reveal the source of the 4,000 deaths a day claim — although it has subsequently been revealed to be a Cambridge/Public Health England (PHE) estimate.
Now, Daniel Howdon, a research fellow at the Leeds Institute of Health Sciences and Carl Heneghan, Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, have discovered that the Cambridge/PHE graph dates from three weeks ago. The pair have analysed the data and deduced that it predicted that deaths would be running at 1,000 a day by 1 November — i.e. yesterday. In fact, deaths have not turned out to be at anything like that level. The average for the past seven days (which smoothes out the ‘weekend effect’) is 214 deaths per day.
The other graphs presented on Saturday, according to Howdon and Heneghan, are also at least three weeks old. The second most frightening projection came from Imperial College London, which showed deaths peaking at just over 2,500 a day by January. This scenario also showed that deaths would be running at 486 a day by 1 November — more than twice as high as has happened in practice. The London School and Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and University of Warwick projections, which showed deaths peaking at around 2,000 a day predicted 266 and 234 deaths a day by 1 November respectively.
Howdon and Heneghan point to their own preferred mortality projections, published by the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge. These only go two weeks ahead, due to the huge uncertainties involved in trying to make forecasts further into the future. Pointedly, its predictions have been falling in the past three weeks: on 12 October it predicted 588 deaths for 30 October. By 21 October it was predicting 324 deaths for 31 October. Even that has turned out to be 50 per cent higher than the reality.
Why, then, did the government present us with graphs based on studies which have already proven to be overly pessimistic? The very small print at the bottom of the graphs presented by Sir Patrick Vallance described them as ‘scenarios’ and not predictions. Nevertheless, that is exactly how they will have been taken by many viewers. |
How do you find the time to collate all this. Do you not work? |  |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 16:30 - Nov 2 with 1423 views | saint22 |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 11:35 - Nov 2 by Bison |
Out of interest if Boris does quit who would get your vote for for the next Prime Minister
9/4
Rishi Sunak
6/1
Michael Gove
12/1
Jeremy Hunt
20/1
Dominic Raab
20/1
Priti Patel
25/1
Sajid Javid
25/1
Tom Tugendhat
50/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg
50/1
James Cleverly
50/1
Matthew Hancock
50/1
Nigel Farage
50/1 |
Good god that looks a great list for a Covid party | | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 17:00 - Nov 2 with 1412 views | Sadoldgit |
Just come back from a Tescos shop and surprise, surprise, hardly any loo rolls left on the shelf. What is it with The Great British Public and toilets? How many times do they have to be told that a) there is absolutely no need to panic buy and b) Covid doesn’t give you the sh its? | | | |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 12:11 - Nov 3 with 1355 views | JaySaint |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 17:00 - Nov 2 by Sadoldgit |
Just come back from a Tescos shop and surprise, surprise, hardly any loo rolls left on the shelf. What is it with The Great British Public and toilets? How many times do they have to be told that a) there is absolutely no need to panic buy and b) Covid doesn’t give you the sh its? |
but it is dangerous isn't it? maybe people don't want to be leaving their homes multiple times?
in other news, R is falling and below 1 in many areas...hell, lets continue with lockdown and the continued destruction of the country | |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 14:38 - Nov 3 with 1327 views | Chesham_Saint |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 17:00 - Nov 2 by Sadoldgit |
Just come back from a Tescos shop and surprise, surprise, hardly any loo rolls left on the shelf. What is it with The Great British Public and toilets? How many times do they have to be told that a) there is absolutely no need to panic buy and b) Covid doesn’t give you the sh its? |
“The Great British Public”? 
Methinks you’re being a tad tongue in cheek there, Sogs! | |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 15:24 - Nov 3 with 1313 views | JaySaint |
Vallance says the models produced “are not forecasts, they’re models which tell you how things can look. But they’re not forecasts and they should be looked at knowing that. | |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 15:34 - Nov 3 with 1307 views | solent_toffee |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 12:11 - Nov 3 by JaySaint |
but it is dangerous isn't it? maybe people don't want to be leaving their homes multiple times?
in other news, R is falling and below 1 in many areas...hell, lets continue with lockdown and the continued destruction of the country |
I’m not really sure how it’s a lockdown. Schools, colleges and Universities are still open, supermarkets are staying open, I’m having a new bedroom installed next week and the company have confirmed they are carrying on as usual as is the cleaning company I use every week.
Pubs and restaurants and now golf courses are closed, the parks are staying open. Football teams can still train together but we can’t meet our friends outside.
I will suck it up and keep my head down for the duration but it’s all a bit odd. That said I did fail GCSE science. | | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 15:41 - Nov 3 with 1301 views | JaySaint |
I honestly believe the Govt do not want to do this and are fully aware of the economic devastation this is causing, for very few deaths (6% as it stands).
However, SAGE have played the media brilliantly and the Govt are paralysed into doing something, to the difference of which, will be negligible | |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 16:22 - Nov 3 with 1275 views | Sadoldgit |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 14:38 - Nov 3 by Chesham_Saint |
“The Great British Public”?
Methinks you’re being a tad tongue in cheek there, Sogs! |
Just a bit 😉 | | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 16:54 - Nov 3 with 1264 views | saint22 |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 15:41 - Nov 3 by JaySaint |
I honestly believe the Govt do not want to do this and are fully aware of the economic devastation this is causing, for very few deaths (6% as it stands).
However, SAGE have played the media brilliantly and the Govt are paralysed into doing something, to the difference of which, will be negligible |
Or the govt should have done a two week one as advised and we would not need a month one now..... | | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 17:14 - Nov 3 with 1253 views | cocklebreath |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 17:00 - Nov 2 by Sadoldgit |
Just come back from a Tescos shop and surprise, surprise, hardly any loo rolls left on the shelf. What is it with The Great British Public and toilets? How many times do they have to be told that a) there is absolutely no need to panic buy and b) Covid doesn’t give you the sh its? |
Just like to pull you up on one thing soggy, COVID does give you the sh!ts it’s one of the main symptoms , thought you’d know this being such a smart arse. |  |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 17:16 - Nov 3 with 1252 views | cocklebreath |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 15:41 - Nov 3 by JaySaint |
I honestly believe the Govt do not want to do this and are fully aware of the economic devastation this is causing, for very few deaths (6% as it stands).
However, SAGE have played the media brilliantly and the Govt are paralysed into doing something, to the difference of which, will be negligible |
6% deaths as it stands? What does this mean? | |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 17:51 - Nov 3 with 1234 views | Sadoldgit |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 17:14 - Nov 3 by cocklebreath |
Just like to pull you up on one thing soggy, COVID does give you the sh!ts it’s one of the main symptoms , thought you’d know this being such a smart arse. |
Is it? I didn’t know that. Not such a smart arse after all then! 🥴 | | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 08:58 - Nov 5 with 1183 views | JaySaint |
here we go...Looks like the Tier system was working.
But hey, lets continue to destroy the whole country anyway....
[Post edited 5 Nov 2020 8:59]
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 10:30 - Nov 5 with 1160 views | dwayne_dibley |
need to keep the stroppy lefty lower classes locked up |  |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 19:31 - Nov 5 with 1126 views | saint22 |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 08:58 - Nov 5 by JaySaint |
here we go...Looks like the Tier system was working.
But hey, lets continue to destroy the whole country anyway....
[Post edited 5 Nov 2020 8:59]
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Official UK Statistics authority rebuked the government on confusing data to justify lockdown | | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 21:22 - Nov 5 with 1099 views | Bicester_North |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 19:31 - Nov 5 by saint22 |
Official UK Statistics authority rebuked the government on confusing data to justify lockdown |
When was this girlfriend? | |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 00:14 - Nov 6 with 1053 views | kentsouthampton |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 21:22 - Nov 5 by Bicester_North |
When was this girlfriend? |
Today, do try and keep up. | | | |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 08:44 - Nov 6 with 1007 views | Bicester_North |
| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 00:14 - Nov 6 by kentsouthampton |
Today, do try and keep up. |
Hey, thanks for keeping me posted skate22! Have a great day hey? | |
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| New National Lockdown from Wednesday on 10:45 - Nov 6 with 986 views | JaySaint |
I wonder what lies we will be told today to justify the economic ruin this country is putting itself in | |
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