Saints need to keep racking up points to keep clear of the relegation zone with a tough set of fixtures coming up.

Saints havent been beaten much in recent months, this makes it feel like we are playing well and are not involved with the relegation dogfight anymore, but the fact is that we are not winning games, only one win in the last nine games plus six draws and two defeats, that gives us a grand total of nine points from those nine games and that is relegation form.

Of course there were difficult fixtures amongst those nine games, but to be blunt probably only three of them in Arsenal at home and Chelsea and Man Utd away, the others were all games that we should have picked up points in and although we did in most, we really should have won more than one of them.

This means now we still sit hovering above the relegation zone and havent pulled clear, yes its a close run thing, if we hadnt let in that late equaliser at Wigan then the table would look a lot better and if you add the Stoke game to it we would only be two wins from safety, but we didnt hold on in either and its now a frightening thought that as bad as Aston Villa have been they are still only three points behind us and thats too close to comfort.

We need to make sure that we keep at least a three point gap between us and the third relegation place, thats a bare minimum that with our goal difference will keep us out of the bottom three if we should lose a game and all those below us win.

Manchester City is one of those fixtures that we now need to pick up a point in to keep our heads above water, our failure to beat Wigan means that we go into two difficult fixtures against City and the now fast reviving Newcastle away knowing that two defeats would plunge us right back in the mire, past experience tells us that come the end of the season, usually one team will go into freefall whilst one of the bottom three will hit form and pull out, that team was us in 2004/05 when by March we looked to have pulled out of the mire, but our final eight fixtures saw us win only one game and that added to two draws and five defeats was enough to send us down.

Indeed this very week eight years ago, February 6th to be exact we let in a last minute goal at home to Everton to draw 2-2 a look at that final table of 04/05 shows that those two points dropped would have been enough to send us above Norwich, Palace and West Brom and to safety.

So this weekend is important, it could have and should have been one where the pressure is off us a bit and we could have gone into the game and put the pressure on City, now its one that we have to pick up something in and perhaps more worryingly at Newcastle as well, otherwise we go into March and what will be a tough game at home to QPR looking over our shoulders or perhaps even being in the bottom three.       

Photo: Action Images

Clawsfour added 10:03 - Feb 5 Reasonable article rather spoilt by the assertion that 9 points from 9 games is relegation form. I am not sure this is true this season when it is already looking like 36 points (and possibly even 35) will be the cut off point. Anyhow - wherever we draw the line, a reasonable expectation from Saints remaining fixtures is 4 wins and 3 draws and that doesn't include anything from the next two games. 39 points should easily see us home, but I think there is every chance we could take more than 40 points - not bad after the start we made.

0

SaintNick added 10:30 - Feb 5 Well if we get 13 points from our last 13 games we will have 37 points and that will be very very close to going down in virtually every season, lose to Man City and Newcastle and it will be a tight situation, so i stand by my assertion that a point a game is relegation form. Your right a reasonable assumption is four wins and three draws, but current form is far more accurate that assumption and what we have to go on at the moment is 9 points from 9 games

0

simmo400 added 12:27 - Feb 5 The Wigan slip up has cost us no doubt. Instead of playing this game without fear we now need a result against city. Defence please be awake for all the 100mins requred saturday.
0

saint22 added 12:55 - Feb 5 As I have posted before our results against Wigan, both home and away may well prove our death knell
0

saint22 added 12:57 - Feb 5 As I have posted before our results against Wigan, both home and away may well prove our death knell
0

davepid added 18:08 - Feb 5 I took my 11 yr old grandson to ihis first Saints games this week - Man Utd and Wigan. He said three things of pertinence: 1. Our Number 20 is the best player we have. 2. With all that possession we should score more goals 3.Why do we pass when we should be shooting. Enough said in my book.
0

Whatsforpud added 19:56 - Feb 5 Have been interested in the general debate on how many points are normally needed to stay up. Done a bit of research on this and found that in the past 17 years in which there were 20 teams in the Premier League, 18th position has averaged exactly 36 points. So, on average, 37 points, or 36 with a better goal difference, has been needed (if averages are a guide). The highest loser had 42 points, with the lowest being just 30.

0

slynch added 20:55 - Feb 5 Whatever happened in the past can have no effect on the present so it is of no consequence what the average of the last 17 years is: having any debate about it is therefore, on average, pointless. Ha!
0

BlackRod added 22:13 - Feb 5 On average Saints have given away too many goals in each match played. Given that the same players (almost) are still there we can expect this behaviour to continue. Therefore the past can be used to predict the future. Nine points from the last nine games. If we continue at the same rate we will stay up by dint of our superior goal difference. We're already as good as there.

0

saintmark1976 added 22:44 - Feb 5 Surely the problem now is simply one of expectation? In replacing Mr Adkins the chairman has taken a decision which says to me "I expect us to survive on the basis of my judgement in appointing a new man". To achieve this end then our form at the very worst needs to be as good as when Mr Adkins was in charge. Clearly the omens to date are not good with only two points from a possible nine obtained. Obviously this can change quickly going forward and I hope it does.However, my concern is what will the chairman do if form does not improve? I still think that it was the wrong decision to replace Mr Adkins but more importantly it was the wrong time to replace him.

0

StChristophe added 09:41 - Feb 6 "Indeed this very week eight years ago, February 6th to be exact we let in a last minute goal at home to Everton to draw 2-2 a look at that final table of 04/05 shows that those two points dropped would have been enough to send us above Norwich, Palace and West Brom and to safety." Wasn't that the game where we played them off the park, the one where the ref failed to spot a nailed on handball from Everton, and where someone (in this instance Crouch, who could have run the ball into the corner, but gave away possession) stopped concentrating in the final minute, which cost us a deserved victory? Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose, as they say in Portsmouth.

0

slynch added 11:12 - Feb 6 (Blackrod) Having a rubbish defence is an on-going problem and not a prediction from the past. Like having a car that is red, it was red yesterday and still is today. How many points that is required to stay up this year is dependent on others and independent from the past. The red car does not predict the colour of the car parked behind it. The only thing that is certain is Saints need 1 point (ignoring gd) more than than 3 others teams which could get between 4 and 45 (I think). Aiming to get a certain number of points can't happen anyway. What do you do? If you are getting too many do you loose some or if you're not getting enough do you decide to get more? Clearly absurd and impossible, in that order. All that can be done is to buy the best players you can afford and the best manger as you can afford. Saints can afford to spend more than 8 other teams can in this league, judging by the only variable in the game, that is income from the fans. Which means they should end up 12th.

0

Blogs 31 bloggers

Southampton Polls