Will One More Win Be Enough ? Tuesday, 1st May 2018 11:39
Saints fans are poring over the Premier League table and fixture list to try and work out just how many points will be needed if we are to stay up !
Saints fans will be hoping to avoid a last day biting of nails as we experienced in the 1990's but will that be possible as the season starts to reach it's conclusion.
With several clubs having a tough run in 35 points could be enough to save Saints, although it is looking like 38 will be the safety target this season.
In a weeks time we will know more with two tough away trips to Everton and Swansea and the fact is that four points from those two games might well be enough to keep us up, but will possibly still see us sweating on the last day.
As it stands there are still 10 teams who could go down, starting with West Brom for whom it is highly unlikely they could stay up and ending with Crystal Palace on 38 points who along with Bournemouth and Watford have probably just about done enough to stay up, although it sticks in the throat that Watford are safe given the way they cheated us out of three points, with those added we would now be out of the bottom three.
An initial glance at the table suggests that it is a straight fight between Saints and Swansea for the last place, but it is not as simple as that, for Saints two straight wins now would almost certainly guarantee us safety, but four points out of the trips to Everton and Swansea are essential if we are to stay up.
Swansea are away to Bournemouth at the weekend and the Cherries know a win will guarantee them safety, they follow it up with our visit and then on the final day have a winnable home game V Stoke.
But perhaps the two teams nervously looking over their shoulder are Huddersfield and West Ham both on 35, Huddersfield especially are nervous, with a trip to Manchester City this weekend followed by a midweek trip to Chelsea, it is hard to see them getting a point out of either of those two games and then they finish up with the visit of Arsenal on the last day.
West Ham have a difficult run in as well, Leicester away on Saturday won't be easy and then they finish with a midweek home game against Manchester United and then Everton on the last day.
Brighton may have done just enough on 37 points but they may find it hard to get another, if the visit of Man Utd on Friday yields no points then a midweek trip to Manchester City will be tough and they finish up at Liverpool, if they lose to United then they may be looking over their shoulder come the final day.
But Saints need to remain focused on what they need to do and get the job done, it could very well be that a win and a draw in the next two games will be enough to keep us up, although it will be a very tense last day.
Ideally two straight wins would see us on 38 points and a great escape that looked unlikely a couple of weeks ago would suddenly be achievable.
From a Saints perspective they are the team in form at the bottom West Brom aside, of the six teams above us, four have not won in the last five games and West Ham last won when they beat us, and that came five games ago when they beat us that being after three straight defeats.
In relegation dog fights it is often the team that finds its form in the run in that stays up and certainly in our last four League games we have put up a decent fight, even though the first two at Arsenal and against Chelsea ended in 3-2 defeats.
So things are hotting up, four points could keep us up, with our superior goal difference to all Brighton at the bottom, so will a solitary win be enough ?
The answer is yes it could be but we would rather it be two !
One win could be enough, Swansea are being talked about as the club to catch, but I would rather have their fixtures than Huddersfield’s. City and Chelsea away and Arsenal at home ( in what will be Wenger’s last game!), to me that doesn’t bode well for them. If we beat Swansea or Everton, that could be enough, but a draw also against the other one will keep us up. (Hopefully!)
Unfortunately it's not all in our hands, but I generally agree. Avoid defeat against Everton whilst Bournemouth beat Swansea and City beat Huddersfield. Then beat Swansea and we should be safe (they really didn't look very good against Chelsea for long periods of time). We really don't want it to come down to our last game of the season and need to get a result against City!
its not a given we'll beat Swansea, they could hold us to a draw / only attack on the counter and look to beat stoke on the final day who will probably be relegated by then anyway. Plus although they didnt look good vs Chelsea when they are on it they can do well and will be able to play Abraham again (which they werent allowed to vs his parent club) and he helps their shape / style of play even if he doesnt always score.
Crucial we get something from the Everton game, and if its three points we can go into the Swansea game not needing to go gung ho and risk conceding. I expect Long to start up front on his own against Everton and there to be very few chances.
If Arsenal make it through to the Europa final this week (long shot I realize) that puts a different take on the Huddersfield game and probably means Stoke need to do us a favour in Wales...
we had must win games against Newcastle and West ham and got a complete pasting, Im a bit concerned about that mentality we seem to have, Hughes has at least instilled some effort and belief ill give him that, but your right Nick if we can do the impossible and beat Everton the rest of those at the bottom will be s****ing themselves coyr
Hard to imagine why given our past record at Everton but the bookies have us as favourites to win on Saturday.Perhaps they are thinking that the Everton players will already be on the beach or that discontent with Fat Sam will boil over from the crowd.
I can understand after Saturday the mood is more buoyant and positive and I am looking forward to Saturday more so now than I was, but I am a bit concerned that the attitude appears to be a given that we will get something at Everton, when our record there is pretty dire, we have not managed 2 wins in a row this season and Everton's results recently have been pretty good and Allardyce seems keen to prove critics wrong. We would be foolish to underestimate them or believe they have finished for the season.
If we lose on Saturday that places immense pressure on the Swansea game. What last Saturday gave us, is a glimmer of hope. Realistically the current 3 in the bottom are still the favourites to go down because we are playing catch up.
It is basically 2 from Saints, Stoke, Swansea and Huddersfield. I know Wet Spam blow hot and cold but they will win one more.
I really do not want Arsenal to get through in Europe. That would at a stroke give Huddersfield an enormous chance for points.
We musn't forget that Stoke aren't dead and buried and could get to 36. My feeling is that as long as Arsenal beat Huddersfield on the last day 4 more points for us should be enough, 3 if Stoke don't beat Palace. If we beat Everton and Swansea don't beat Bournemouth then a win at Swansea would mean we were safe - but even the biggest optimist would not think that is going to happen...
draw next two games and lose to city we can still stay up probably on goal diference, so many permutations,, bookies have us to win in Goodison so with any luck they will be right, I reckon 4 more pts and we will be safe
Other teams are not anodyne passive entities that respond to our whims and fancies, they are real teams with real fans in a real crises having all the same problems as us and fighting for their own futures and survival. Each one of them will be plotting and planning and busting every gut and sinew to make sure they are not the ones to go down.
Somebody has to go down at the end of the day and right now points are all that matter, every team will go hell bent for maximum points from their remaining games.
There is the rub, if we win everything and they do too we'd go down. Of course it is not as simple as that as some of us play each other but the best plan is to stop worrying about what others will or won't do and just go for 9 points.
I'd hate to play Citeh on the final day in the knowledge that only a 7-0 defeat would send us down!
It's dangerous to think we might stay up with one win or one win and a draw. There is always a result you didn't see coming. I suspect Huddersfield may beat Arsenal on the last day of the season. If they do we will need to win at Everton AND Swansea. Lets not set our target to low. If we win two of out last three then we 'should' be ok. If we don't then we will be 'sh-tting' ourselves on the last day!!!