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Who Has The Toughest Relegation Run In !
Wednesday, 27th Mar 2019 11:45

Here we take a look at the fixtures of the teams still under threat of relegation and consider who on paper has the toughest run in.

In our last story we looked at the last 8 games and what each of the relegation threatened teams had achieved points wise in that period.

It showed that Saints had 11 points, Cardiff 9, Burnley 8 & Brighton 7 and confirmed that Saints just had to maintain their current season points per game total of 1 to stay up, although if they achieved Ralph Hasenhuttl's personal total from both that period and his 15 games in charge of 1.4 then we would stay up with time to spare.

But past performance is no guide to the future, so what are the chances of each of those 4 teams replicating those totals.

Of the four teams Burnley have only 7 games left whilst the rest of us have 8, so lets look at the fixtures.

Southampton

PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 30Mar 2019
Brighton v Southampton
PREMIER LEAGUE Fr 05Apr 2019
Southampton v Liverpool
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 13Apr 2019
Southampton v Wolves
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 20Apr 2019
Newcastle v Southampton
PREMIER LEAGUE Tu 23Apr 2019
Watford v Southampton
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 27Apr 2019
Southampton v Bournemouth
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 04May 2019
West Ham v Southampton
PREMIER LEAGUE Su 12May 2019
Southampton v Huddersfield

Brighton

PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 30Mar 2019
Brighton v Southampton
PREMIER LEAGUE We 03Apr 2019
Chelsea v Brighton
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 13Apr 2019
Brighton v Bournemouth
PREMIER LEAGUE Tu 16Apr 2019
Brighton v Cardiff
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 20Apr 2019
Wolves v Brighton
PREMIER LEAGUE Tu 23Apr 2019
Tottenham v Brighton
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 27Apr 2019
Brighton v Newcastle
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 04May 2019
Arsenal v Brighton
PREMIER LEAGUE Su 12May 2019
Brighton v Man City

Prediction 6-7 points

Burnley

PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 30Mar 2019
Burnley v Wolves
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 06Apr 2019
Bournemouth v Burnley
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 13Apr 2019
Burnley v Cardiff
PREMIER LEAGUE Mo 22Apr 2019
Chelsea v Burnley
PREMIER LEAGUE Su 28Apr 2019
Burnley v Man City
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 04May 2019
Everton v Burnley
PREMIER LEAGUE Su 12May 2019
Burnley v Arsenal

Prediction 4-5 points

Cardiff

PREMIER LEAGUE Su 31Mar 2019
Cardiff v Chelsea
PREMIER LEAGUE We 03Apr 2019
Man City v Cardiff
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 13Apr 2019
Burnley v Cardiff
PREMIER LEAGUE Tu 16Apr 2019
Brighton v Cardiff
PREMIER LEAGUE Su 21Apr 2019
Cardiff v Liverpool
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 27Apr 2019
Fulham v Cardiff
PREMIER LEAGUE Sa 04May 2019
Cardiff v C Palace
PREMIER LEAGUE Su 12May 2019
Man Utd v Cardiff

Prediction 5-6 points

So what do these fixtures tell us ?

I would say that firstly Burnley & Cardiff have the hardest run in.

Burnley have to play 3 of the top six in only 7 remaining fixtures, but their other 4 games see them host Cardiff in what will be a game that could decide who goes down, but also Wolves who are in good form and have the sixth best away record. Trips to Bournemouth and Everton two sides who are usually strong at home could be daunting, It is difficult to see them getting more than 5 points and that is assuming they beat Cardiff

Cardiff have just as hard a run in, four of the Big Six and tough trips to both Burnley and Brighton, just about the only game you would put money on the winning would be Fulham at home, again hard to see them getting more than 4-5 points, but they might pull off the odd shock, but even that will give them 6 at best I feel.

Brighton have the distraction of an FA Cup semi final which hopefully will enable us to benefit, but they are a team with their fate in their own hands with both us and Cardiff at the Amex stay unbeaten in those two and it's job almost done, but lose them both and the danger bells will ring a little, Brighton have the worst form over the last 8 games, if that continues then with 3 out of the last 4 against the top six they could be in trouble, they have the easiest first four and perhaps the hardest last four.

The reality though is for Saints the future is in our own hands, on paper we have the easiest run in given that we have only Liverpool to play in the top six and some winnable games after that it will be about holding our nerve, the next two games are perhaps our hardest, if we can come through those outside of the bottom three then we will be in good shape for the final six games. We have to look at the bigger picture and not just the next fortnight.

If we want to make it easier for ourselves to stay up then ideally we would want Cardiff to lose at both Burnley & Brighton and then it would be very tough for them, however we really should just do what we have to do so other results don't matter.

I think that judging by current form and the final fixtures that the two teams to really worry are Cardiff & Burnley, both have tough run ins and have to play each other meaning that someone has got to drop points in that game.

It is hard to call between them and will all become clearer when they meet at Turf Moor on the 13th April which Cardiff follow up a few days later when they travel to Brighton.

The table will change dramatically in the next month if history repeats itself and that is just what we need to do, if we keep repeating the points total per game that Ralph Hasenhuttl has achieved so far then we will be safe with plenty of time to spare.

A year ago we were a place below where we are now and two points less, back then though we were a side in disarray with no real hope, we still however managed 8 points from the last 8 games and stayed up, we are far more capable this season of doing that than we were back then.

We stay calm, focus and see setbacks as setbacks and not terminal and we will stay up and be able to look towards a brighter future.


Photo: Action Images



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legod7 added 15:26 - Mar 27
Nick,It is impossible to predict the points any of these 4 teams (including Saints)will get by the end of the season.As I said on your previous post on this matter Saints beat Arsenal and Spurs but lost both home and away games against Cardiff. That could happen to any of these 4 teams.
5

SaintBrock added 09:58 - Mar 28
As cited boringly repetitively our fate will be determined by only our ability to control the controllables open to us and not worrying about the myriad things that we cannot influence like other teams fixtures lists and their performances on the day.

We have 8 more opportunities to decide our own fate, if we cannot rise to these occasions and deal with them we will deserve to go down.
3

highfield49 added 10:16 - Mar 28
I've always regarded betting as poor alternative to flushing money down the drain because of the time wasted placing the bet. It's fairly obvious to anyone, even those who choose to keep betting companies in business, that predicting the outcome of any sporting fixture with complete certainty is statistically not very viable. However, I should make it clear to all fellow supporters that if they actually enjoy betting please feel free to do so because I'm only expressing an opinion. Which, I guess, is what we all do when we try to figure out who will win the matches this weekend. The trouble is I remember all too clearly losing the opportunity to beat Brighton earlier in the season. My monies on a draw..........well it would be if I was going to place a bet.
0

SanMarco added 20:33 - Mar 28
Predictions are part of football and I think Nick has correctly predicted the 4 battling it out to avoid 18th place - unless of course you add Palace. I think we should survive but we aint good enough to be complacent so let's forget who has or has not got the 'easiest' games and simply win 3 of the last 8 (2 will probably be enough but let's be ambitious.) A good start will be a win on Saturday and then Liverpool really will be a free hit or whatever people call it nowadays.
2


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