With the phoney transfer window about to end on Saturday with the end of contracts and payment of loyalty bonus's, the real business will begin, here we take a look at who is likely to be leaving in the next two months.

The first few weeks of the summer transfer window are always quiet, there are the odd deal done here and there, mainly big transfers, but the reality is little is done until July 1st has passed and the players bank accounts bulge with loyalty bonus's that make a mockery of the phrase for club's such as Saints who have been relegated.

Those players who have let the club down throughout a poor season, rarely hang around to put things right in the following season if there is interest in them elsewhere, they often find that they have contracts that the buying club is unwilling to match, that isn't a problem, make it clear that you won't play in the Championship, so if no one will pay the going rate, you want a loan move.

Perhaps a ban on players at relegated clubs being sold for a year might in principle be a good idea, but that is never going to happen.

So just who is likely to move and who is likely to stay.

Starting at the back and moving forward, here is our view of just who might go.

In goal I don't see too much movement, Gavin Bazunu might have received some criticism, but there is mitigating circumstances in the way he was thrown in behind a shambles of a defence at a young age, a year ago he was one of the best keepers in League One, there is no reason that he should not flourish in the Championship.

Alex McCarthy is on too big a contract to go anywhere.

At right back there is much speculation that Tino Livramento is wanted by Newcastle United, Football League World suggest that the Magpies have had a bid of £15 million turned down by Saints and quite rightly so, potentially he is worth double that.

It is also stated that Newcastle have a transfer budget of £75 million which they are about to blow £60 million on Sandro Tonali from AC Milan.

My thoughts are that if a club were willing to fork out £30 million then given the uncertainty after his year long injury, then we should perhaps take it, in the short term we have James Bree who is proven in the Championship in this position and the upcoming Lewis Payne.

Likewise Kyle Walker Peters, I would expect at least £25 million for him should he go, based on the fact that 3 years ago we paid £15 million for a player who had barely played a Premier League game and who now has an England cap.

In the centre of defence both Salisu & Armel Bella-Kotchap are certain to be the subject of bids and we can expect a minimum £20-25 million for each of them, their talent is undisputed, their attitude less so.

Lyanco looks likely to also depart, probably for around £5 million and Duje Caleta -Car seems bound for Tranzonspor alongside with Mislav Orsic.

Jack Stephens may be the subject of a bid from Bournemouth and although I have seen no reports of any interest in Jan Bednarek, I think that given a low price of around £10-12 million given he still has two years left on his contract.

At left back Romain Perraud could leave and we have a ready made replacement in Juan Larios, who looked promising last season before picking up the injury that kept him out of the the second half of the season.

The midfield could be ravaged, Romeo Lavia could be going to Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal or even Manchester United depending on which report you believe, all give the price as a minimum of £50 million.

James Ward Prowse could well go, I said a few weeks back that the key here would be West Ham's situation after the Europa Conference League final, they won and are in the Europa League, that will be a deal breaker, I think with a lack of Big 7 interest in his JWP might have stayed, but European football will be a big temptation, £40 million will be the starting price.

These are the players that are highly likely to go, assuming that Newcastle don't increase their offer for Tino and in the short he stays then between the rest we could bring in at a conservative estimate £175 million.

Then we get into those that could equally stay or go.

The two big names here are Kameldeen Sulemana and Carlos Alcaraz, we paid around £20 million for Sulemana and that valuation is likely to have risen, likewise Alcaraz, he cost us £13 million, but his will have risen sharply and could touch £20 million.

Nathan Tella seems to be in demand, but only by Burnley, Transfermark have his value at 18 million Euros, so Saints will demand at least £16 million for him, but Burnley do not seem to want to pay that, so he could well end up staying at St Mary's.

Stuart Armstrong could be another going, now 31 and with injury issues I cannot see Saints bothered either way, of course it would be good to see him stay, but if we were to get a fee of around £5 million I think we could take it.

Up front I think we would love to ship Tall Pall Onauchu back to Europe, but his salary will prevent a permanent deal, I think we will look to recoup some of his transfer outlay back from loan moves, but I think we may try him in the Championship first and see how he does in August, if it isn't working expect a loan move on deadline day.

Che Adams will attract interest, with 4 years in the Premier League under his belt he is worth around £20 million, but with only a year left on his contract that probably wont be matched, I expect him to go for £15 million to a lower table Premier League club.

So from the second half of our transfer list it is very uncertain, on one hand we could rake in around £75 million, on the other most of them could stay, if they did we would truly have a great squad for next season.

I think we will rake in at least £150 million overall, but that could end up being as much as £225 million.

Whichever it is, I think we will need to spend around £60 million of that to give us strength down the spine, two proven central defenders, a leader with experience in the centre of the park and a proven striker.

I am actually excited about this season, I am not fazed by a large number of players leaving due to the transfer fees that they will bring in, we should remember that we are looking for players who can do a job in the Championship and not the Premier League.

Of course we will not replace JWP, KWP or Lavia with players anywhere near their quality, but the situation is what it is, we need players who can perform in the Championship and we have those such as James Bree, Adam Armstrong, Will Smallbone and Nathan Tella who are proven at that level for the job they need to do, likewise perhaps Ibrahima Diallo, Sekou Mara could flourish, don't judge them by Premier League levels.

I would hope that Saints would spend wisely and put the other two thirds of the money away for next summers transfer budget when hopefully we will be back in the Premier League

Photo: Action Images

SanMarco added 10:33 - Jun 30 Yes - it is impossible to write 'loyalty bonus' without the irony indicated by apostrophes!!! I think more will go than us fans will be happy with so it is essential the fees are not p1ss-taking ala the Saudi bid for Livramento. For me the interesting ones are JWP, Alcaraz and Sulemana (will the latter two get a 'loyalty' bonus if they leave?!) JWP has been impeccably loyal and the interest in him will be the likes of Villa and Wet Spam. Of course with our relegation that is an enormous step up at least temporarily but it is hardly Abu Dhabi or Liverpool is it? I think he will go but the interesting question for us is how effective he would be in the second division? Defences will still need splitting with precise, quick forward passes - he wouldn't get us promoted with his dead-ball skills alone... Sulemana and Alcaraz can hardly claim relegation was a total surprise so I think they should stay if we want them to (barring ridiculously high offers). Keeping two of Tella, AA and Che would be good but other than that I am not overly bothered. Like Nick I am looking forward to next season. Who knows whether we will go up but at least we should be up there.

2

highfield49 added 10:37 - Jun 30 You don't seem to have factored in the probability of a reduction in wages following relegation, Nick. Isn't it likely that all of the players mentioned will be looking at a significant cut in pay? Of course it doesn't hurt to post a bit of speculation concerning those who might leave the club but you seem to have gone for a rather odd scattergun approach which includes players that the club may well want to keep on the books. In fact, if all of the speculated moves were to happen then there would be zero continuity of the style of play which the new manager is trying to adapt. Several of the players you appear to feel are surplus to needs might well be needed in the coming season.

-1

Hamnottingham added 11:07 - Jun 30 Che will go as he's in the last year of his contract. Could see JWP staying, 'give us a year to bounce straight back up and you cement a Saints legend position,' if there are no Stinking Rich 7 bids. Like to see it but doubt it. Like the theory that Lavia might stay so he can go to City for 40 mil next Summer. Could be a runner. Would be good not to completely overhaul the defence AND the midfield. Both would fit Rusty's style. It's been speculated that Mara is unsettled due to personal reasons (homesickness?) so may go, but he'd make a great CF in Russell's game. plan. Perraud will have few suitors, though he is good imo. Lyanco and Stephens also good fits to the new system, though surely you need pace with the full backs 'inverted' (whoever came up with that nosensical technical word?) ABK would be excellent to keep for that reason, plus a full season would increase his value. Sadly, he's in the German squad so will want a higher profile.......and if that shoulder keeps popping? Give Tino a pay rise (rumoured to be 'only 8k a week') to keep him for a season and boost his value. Djenepo and Aribo??????? Do they fit Russell's style? Could see a team (in 4 1 2 3) from players likely to still be around of Bazunu (or Mc Carthy) Tino (or Bree) Lyanco (or Bednarek) Stephens Perraud (or Larios) Diallo Smallbone Alcaraz Sulemana (or Edozie) Mara (or A Armstrong) Tella Bench could also include S Armstrong, Aribo, Djenepo Obviously some of those will go, but there is the basis of a decent Championship side there with several having potential to develop into PL quality players if we get promoted at some point. Rusty will add some players who will fit his system too and the sales will provide some financial stability. As JWP and Lavia are likely to go it is central midfielders/defensive midfielders we need most desperately. Am looking forward to this season (hoping we have a top half finish at least) so we can be playing matches with a decent chance of winning. If we happen to be pushing for promotion, we will at least be desperate to win for positive reasons, rather than just avoiding the drop being the drive.

1

underweststand added 11:36 - Jun 30 There are more than a few factors here. Experienced Prem. players and /or internationals won't want to take a pay cut AND play in the Championship and will want to leave PDQ. As for "the others" if they couldn't get off the bench before, they won't be any better now. Financially, with a view to anticipated decrease in; matchday attendances / TV income / less sponsor ads. and the reduction in the salary bill there is clearly an obvious outcome. Salary levels for Championship players (published earlier) are considerably lower than those in the Prem. Not many got over 20K week and average was between 12-15K /week. Fans quick to condemn little-known names who have not played above Championship level will have plenty to criticise as almost everyone we sign will have a lower standard than we came up against in the last 11 seasons of the Prem. The gap between the two leagues is far greater than many people think, as seen with promotion-winning sides who are relegated in first /second season up, or like us find there is no "third-time lucky". All things considered we should be grateful that Ralph kept us up as long as he did . If RM manages to get " the better players " from his previous clubs, and it works we might do well, but many of us will be desperately searching for any familiar names when we start to see the first few games, and we will see a whole new generation of young players. Simple answer - don't compare the future with our past. We can't re-write history.

-2

davidargyll added 12:03 - Jun 30 At least £150million? Let alone £225m? I think you are on cloud god knows where! If we get in north of £100m I will staggered? Why? Because it’s a buyers market for all and we are keen, maybe even desperate to get players off the books. You seem to be believing all the hype about eg JWP being worth £50m because that figure has been mentioned in the press from West Ham - but they are notoriously tight with their wallet. Or Lavia just because Chelsea said a few months back they’d bid £50m. Have you not heard the expression “words are cheap”? Because saying you’ll bid X is one thing, writing the cheque is quite another. But I do think you’re right that we may lose a few on loan deals - easily the sensible thing for a buying club to offer - but getting in the numbers you’re talking about is pie in the sky…

-2

kenis added 13:21 - Jun 30 Still think after all the departures the squad will end up looking like the below and will depend partly if we have annoyed Swansea so much we cant sign any RM players to be his voice on the pitch etc. If we could retain some of the players not listed that would be good - especially Che and S.Armstrong GK - Bazunu / McCarthy / Willy RB - Livramento / Bree / [youth] LB - Perraud / Larios / [options - Djenepo filling in / Ryan Manning if signs to replace Perraud] CBs - Lyanco / Stephens / [new signings x2 + youth / Bree filling in if needed] CMs - Smallbone / Diallo / [new signing - Grimes?] AMs - Edzozie / Djenpo / Aribo / [new signing / loan from prem?] Strikers - A. Armstrong / Onuachu / Mara

1

kenchilds70 added 13:23 - Jun 30 totally agree with davidargyll £225 million is pie in the sky numbers...Orsic giveaway proves that SR are happy to shed player numbers for whatever they can get. My opinion may be unfounded but I would do as much as I could to keep players thet will get us back in the PL, and let the rest go. Might be incorrect but its at least a plan...not sure if SR has one at the moment.

-1

kenis added 13:23 - Jun 30 plus anyone else stepping up from the B / U21s like Ballard
1

Hamnottingham added 13:54 - Jun 30 Yep, forgot to add the Ballard et al.
0

Monksway added 14:39 - Jun 30 I would be very surprised if we get anywhere near 200 million. Livramento, ABK, Lavia, Alvarez and Sulimana all might be worth a punt from a top 7 club as "young potential" but won't be paying much above 15-20 million. KWP, JWP, Adams, Salisu, Tella, Aribo, Stuart Armstrong, will only be of interest to mid to lower EPL clubs looking for a bargain at the end of the window. The rest will have to be loans to get them off the payroll. I guess what we end up with will depend on how much money SR need to raise. I'm not expecting Swansea to do us any favours so don't expect much movement in that direction.

0

KilkennySaint added 16:41 - Jun 30 Hard to know what the squad will be at the start of the season, just hope we can clear out the deadwood, keep some of the younger talent and bring in some experience. Loyalty bonus's for a pathetic season performance and going AWOL when we needed them for a relegation battle, really sad to see where this game has gone.
1

kristianJ added 19:27 - Jun 30 I think the £150m figure is a reasonable guesstimate.. We do have a large squad with some decent players who we can sell for large fee as a lot of them are still young and have a few years left on their contract. We are also in reasonable financial health so don’t have to sell players on the cheap. It would be good if Martin factors in our academy as the likes of Ballard, Dibling and Doyle should be given a chance next season. I’d love to see Tino, Alcaraz and Sulemana stay. I suspect at least one of them will go. This is probably a minority view but I am not so convinced by Adam Armstrong- I know he’s scored goals in the Championship a few years back, but he’s a limited footballer and we might have better options.

0

Blogs 31 bloggers

Southampton Polls