Trust me, I am not a statistician, but what you have set out are not really stats.
What you have presented is a series of "what if's"
What if we win the vast majority of our remaining games ?
What if most of our nearest competitors lose a significant number of their remaining games?
What if our results vs those teams is heavily skewed in our favour?
What we can't possibly know is how many points will give us a play off spot.
My guess is if we give that data to Professor Statto of Oxford University he would study it for 30 seconds, stroke his chin and say.. "The probability of being promoted currently lies in a range from 49.9 to 50.1 % "
If you believe, then it will happen. |  |
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