| Game 30 - Looking at the points for survival 13:29 - Mar 13 with 2923 views | Jack_Kass |
Following on from the previous 2 threads -
https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/214441/bottom-at-xmas-g
https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/217400/game-25--looking
Observations since Game 25 -
At game 25, the 18th placed team was Southampton with 23 pts, with a 0.92 points per game average, since then we have seen the same position in the table amass only 4 points, meaning a 0.02 drop in PPG.
With this decrease, the projected total of safety has now fallen down 1 point, back to our original projected total of 35 points, that we made at Game 19 in December.
With 8 games left, the average points needed (over the previous 10 years) from this stage is 8 points, helping to give us our new total of 35.
The average rise in points per game, is 0.02, again which means that adding to Palace’s current total of 0.90, multiped over 38 games, gives us a figure of 35.3.
Looking at the past precedents in regards to the previous totals, we can feel safe in ruling out 39 as total that is not enough to survive, as the jump (0.13 from 27 points) is unprecedented.
Although there was a jump of 0.14 points from this stage two seasons ago, that was from 25 points, and a similar situation would see a 15 year record high of 41 points to stay up, at the very low end of our probability scale. Only 1 team in 22 years has needed more than this to stay up.
Historical observations — 22 years
The 18th position total is the same as last year, with Hull and Palace both on 27 points.
The average of 27 points for the 18th placed team, is in line with the average at this stage, over the last 22 years.
Looking back over the last 22 years, only once has the total reached over 40 points, from 27 points at this stage, and that is West Ham (42) in 2002-2003.
Excluding the season in 02/03, involving West Ham, in 22 seasons, not once has the 18th position, with 27 points or below, reached 39 points, only twice has the total reached 38.
Summary
This season 18th placed total will be at the most, 38 points, which means Swansea would need 7 points from 8 games to guarantee survival. Anything above 38 is unprecedented and incredibly unlikely.
The minimum needed may only be 35 points, which would mean Swansea City only need as little as 4 points from the next 8 games to ensure survival. [Post edited 13 Mar 2018 13:32]
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| Game 30 - Looking at the points for survival on 13:57 - Mar 13 with 2860 views | jackjackjackjack |
Difference this year is there are more teams than usual with a possibility of getting relegated, and only one is adrift.
And after 31 games last season Hull had overtaken us, and were out of the relegation zone. So that point is rather moot. | |
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| Game 30 - Looking at the points for survival on 14:04 - Mar 13 with 2842 views | Jack_Kass |
| Game 30 - Looking at the points for survival on 13:57 - Mar 13 by jackjackjackjack |
Difference this year is there are more teams than usual with a possibility of getting relegated, and only one is adrift.
And after 31 games last season Hull had overtaken us, and were out of the relegation zone. So that point is rather moot. |
Makes no difference, they have to play each other, impossible for them all to achieve maximum points in every game.
You're also looking at the team, and not the total, the total after 31 games was 28
It is the 18th placed teams total that determines the target for survival. | |
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| Game 30 - Looking at the points for survival on 14:49 - Mar 13 with 2741 views | Groo |
We have a number of games against relegation rivals which is good, except below is the mini-league of the bottom 10 teams playing against each other.
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| Groo does what Groo does best |
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