| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 16:29 - Nov 4 with 26484 views | robith |
Hello Fellow Rs,
Some of you may remember from years gone by I have run a thread where we track our chances of making promotion, and inevitably how many points we need to avoid relegation.
I had to stop making it just before COVID, as I had my laptop stolen which had the valuable excel sheet stuck on it.
Well, what I can tell you is OneDrive is a magical thing. It has been in the cloud all this time!
I have fixed it up and updated it for the season to date, so prepare to join me on the journey!
Historical Precedent
The average points needed to make the playoffs over the last 7 years is 75
The average points needed to avoid relegation over the last 7 years is 46
Handily the median for both is also 75 and 46, meaning there isn't one season warping our numbers
Plays offs there fore = 1.57 points per game
Survival = 0.97 points per game
Our current trajectory is 1.562 PPG, with a forecast points total of 72
If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed
Play Off Index 0.99
Survival Index 1.61
We are in an around the PPG total we need, but our current points trajectory only gets us to the play offs once in the last 7 years.
Now obviously we need a real world comparison too. Usually around the half way point of the season when the table is a bit more fixed, I'll start to compare each week vs the team in 6th and 21st and their trajectory.
Bossing last season, though obviously we had a pretty rough 1st half of the season
This shows our forecast points based on PPG by week and where it would've got us last season. As you can see historically we'd need to get just a little better to get over 75 to be in with a shot
TL;DR - we're in the mix for sure, but at the 5/6th marker rather than guaranteed play offs.
I'll update weekly(ish) [Post edited 8 Nov 2021 10:32]
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:21 - Apr 11 with 2155 views | TheChef |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:18 - Apr 11 by robith |
I've been keeping it up to date but haven't wanted to depress anyone further
I added a polynomial trend line and...
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We're safe!!! |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 09:34 - Apr 19 with 1856 views | robith |
Didn't think I'd need to meaningfully update this thread again this season
Looks like meat's back on the menu boys.
It looks like this might be a real outlier for a low total to make the play offs.
3-5 look wrapped up, but there's a real bun fight on for 6th, which currently is tracking as low as 70 points to hit. We're currently tracking on a PPG measure at 67.
So win the final 3, and we're in with a real shot of nipping in. The Sheff Utd game could be absolutely huge | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 19:56 - Apr 19 with 1660 views | OldPedro |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 09:34 - Apr 19 by robith |
Didn't think I'd need to meaningfully update this thread again this season
Looks like meat's back on the menu boys.
It looks like this might be a real outlier for a low total to make the play offs.
3-5 look wrapped up, but there's a real bun fight on for 6th, which currently is tracking as low as 70 points to hit. We're currently tracking on a PPG measure at 67.
So win the final 3, and we're in with a real shot of nipping in. The Sheff Utd game could be absolutely huge |
Sheff Utd game could be huge - which cr@p ref will the EFL appoint? My guess is Keith Stroud  |  |
| Extra mature cheddar......a simple cheese for a simple man |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 00:15 - Apr 20 with 1500 views | Hooparoo |
Here comes Mr Hope to kill us all again 🤷ðŸ¼â€â™‚ï¸ |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 09:40 - Apr 20 with 1367 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 00:15 - Apr 20 by Hooparoo |
Here comes Mr Hope to kill us all again 🤷ðŸ¼â€â™‚ï¸ |
feeble draw with Stoke inbound.
Though this is the longest in the season this thread has been required since we guaranteed surivival vs Forest a few years ago | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 09:45 - May 9 with 1148 views | robith |
Forgive me, I'm a completionist
Vs the historical trends
Our Points per game and where we'd have finished last season
Week on week vs last season
How we flexed in real time
I loved this chart but take on board it makes it look like you're in the play offs so might switch to lines next season
Overall, thanks to everyone who contributed to the journey, gutted it didn't turn out like it looks like it could've. Thanks for all the comments, it's been fun (until it wasn't) | | | |
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