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Can Southampton Get Automatic Promotion Even With The Points Deduction
Tuesday, 27th Oct 2026 09:00

When Saints were handed a 4 point deduction for this season in the aftermath of Spygate, many believed that this would spell the end of any hope of automatic promotion this season, however this might well turn out not to be the case.

Last season Southampton finished 4th in the Championship 4 points behind Ipswich in 2nd place, this led many Saints supporters to write off the club's chances of going up automatically this season after the EFL deducted 4 points before a ball had even been kicked.

However with their start to the season that after a win at West ham has seen them move into 6th position, but more importantly just 3 points off the second promotion place, even after the points deduction.

The whole situation means that the team will be based on two barometers this season, the first being where they stand after the points deduction, which as mentioned if 6th, this is of course the main one, but there is a second barometer.

This is where we would stand without the points deduction, of course that has no actual bearing on the League table, but it does show where we stand when measured against results.

That being the case we would today sit 2nd and just 1 point off Middlesbrough who sit top of the pile, this shows our real form.

So Southampton supporters are now starting to ask the question, could we go up automatically even with the 4 point deduction ?

The answer is that it will be a hard ask, but Yes we could do it.

The reasoning is that this time last season, Saints promotion hopes were not looking great, after 12 games under Will Still we had gained just 12 points, indeed by the time of his sacking after his 13th game, we still only had 12 points.

Under Tonda Eckert we went on to storm up the table to finish in that 4th place before the EFL tore up the rule books.

So it could be Said that last season at this stage of the season we had a far bigger deficit to make up than this season 4 point deduction.

The win at West Ham truly made everyone sit up and take notice, complacency had crept in at the top, they looked at League tables and not results, slowly but surely we have climbed the table into a play off spot.

Only Middlesbrough have had better results than us and it is results that will count going forward, if we better our rivals in that barometer then automatic promotion is a real possibility.

It will be tough though, Boro, West Ham & Wolves are real challengers and as the season goes on I think the likes of Swansea & West Brom will start to drop away.

The next week could see us make a real statement of intent by beating in form QPR & West Brom, however it should be noted that they are not as in form as us, we have 13 points from our last 6 games, QPR have 9 points & the Baggies 8, indeed no other team in the top 8 has a better set of results than us, not even Middlesbrough.

Next week will see the first anniversary of Tonda taking charge of the team and if he can now repeat the form of his initial 7 games, then we could well find ourselves in the top 2 by the end of November.

The strangest thing for me though is that we have propelled ourself into this position without really clicking as a team, the first 4 home games were all wins and on paper good wins, but all were never really sealed till the last 20 minutes of the games.

Our 3 wins since the International break were all by a single goal margin and of course the other game was the 0-0 draw with Bolton, we should have won that but weren't firing on all cylinders.

I don't think that at any time has the team yet reached the levels of last season and there is good reason for that, we lack a striker to rotate with Cyle Larin.

Last season there was Ross Stewart, sadly his agents wriggled him out of his contract extension and seemed to persuade him that money mattered over playing for a truly good side at this level.

His replacement Divin Mabuma although scoring on his debut has not impressed since and Tonda Eckert seems to have lost faith with him, preferring Lewis Dobbin up front against West Ham and relegating Mabuma to a bit part role, running down the clock for a few minutes at the end.

I think that Mabuma may well be having his loan terminated by mutual consent in January and if we get the right replacement in, then we could really start to show what we can do.

In simple terms we have a room for improvement that the likes of Middlesbrough for instance don't have, they are playing to their maximum, we are yet to really get started.

If like last last season we make 2 crucial signings in the January transfer window we will truly be a force to be reckoned with, but in the meantime we have to gring out the results and make sure we are in the position for a second half of the season surge.

So Southampton supporters can have real confidence that we can challenge for an automatic promotion spot this season, but before we get too carried away we have to keep our foot on the gas during the next month or so, when we will play not only Boro at the top of the table, but also the likes of Queens Park Rangers, West Brom and then at the start of December, Wolves.

Come out of this 7 game spell unscathed and then we can talk about finishing in the top two.

Imago Via Reuters



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Centurion added 09:41 - Oct 27
A league in which anyone can beat anyone.
No one team is really dominating yet, including Saints.
All to play for, including the likes of Norwich who have had a dreadful start.
3

highfield49 added 10:51 - Oct 27
At the end of the season if we're ten points clear of the team in third place with three matches remaining I'll probably relax a bit.

Personally I'd prefer not to continuously discuss the points deduction which is now irrelevant. I suppose the EFL could find that their action was excessive and reinstate the points lost but my gut feeling indicates that is an unlikely scenario.
1

Bowlercow added 11:51 - Oct 27
Whichever way you look at it the stats say YES.
Average points per game 2 34 X 2 plus 20 88 Could be enough
24 points gained in a quarter of the season Three more quarters X 24 72 plus 20 92 That's a strong chance
Let's forget the deduction now and concentrate on reality
0

1962saint added 12:36 - Oct 27
I didn't agree with the 4 point penalty but over 46 games it never should have been a problem. The club haven't let it be a problem and we are in the playoffs position with still 34 games to play so mathematically quite possible to end up in the top 2. We just have to keep getting the results.
0


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