A quick glance reveals that after the weekend's Premier League fixtures are completed, they could be anywhere between 3rd and 10th, but who is playing who and what is the most likely out come after the final fixture on Sunday evening.

The first fixture of the weekend comes up this evening when Leeds United host West Ham United, this will have the potential to drop Saints down a place if the Hammers win, they are currently 3 points behind us on the same goal difference so a win for them would take them above us on goal difference, any other result would not affect us, so a draw would perhaps be best or a Leeds win.

Saturday sees the first batch of games being played, the lunchtime kick off sees Wolves host Aston Villa, although is Wolves win they will draw level with us on points they need to haul back an 8 goal difference and that is unlikely, given that Villa although 5 points behind us have 2 games in hand, again a draw would be the best result, but failing that an away win would suit Saints as I feel Wolves have more staying power in the long run, so we would prefer them to drop points.

The 3pm kick off sees Newcastle at home to West Brom, a home win seems likely in this one which would pull the Geordies up to 17 points but not enough to catch us, but given they are morel likely to challenge us for a top 10 spot, a win for the Baggies or a draw is better for us.

The tea time clash on Saturday is perhaps the biggest game of the weekend, Manchester United V Manchester City, there is only one result that we want here and that is a draw, they start the weekend in the two positions behind us, a win for either will see one of them jump above us, but if it ends all square they both stay behind us.

Last game of Saturday sees Everton host Chelsea, this is equally important ahead of our game with Sheffield United, the London Blues start the day two points ahead of us but with a goal difference 10 better, whilst the Merseyside Blues are 3 points behind but 2 goals worse off.

It would be easy to say the draw would be the best result, but that would see us unable to move above Chelsea unless we achieved a Premier League record win of a 10 goal margin, we perhaps have to consider who we might be up against later in the season in the Premier League table, if you are one that accepts that we won't be top 5 but we can challenge for 6th or 7th, then a Chelsea win would be better because Everton are likely to be challenging us for that spot, personally although we would not have the potential of 3rd I think both dropping points would be best for us.

On to Sunday and we are first up with our game against Sheffield United, we have to do our job here and despatch the Blades, if we do that then we will move at least into 4th and possibly 3rd depending on how Chelsea have done.

Straight after us is Crystal Palace V Tottenham Hotspur, a win could take Palace to 19 points and aspirations of Europe themselves, but for me the best result would be an Eagles win, Spurs under Jose Mourinho have taken over the mantle of the Premier League's most despised side. Failing that a draw would be good.

Fulham V Liverpool looks likely to have only one outcome, but we can still dream of defeats to all of the 4 sides above us in the table and a Saints win leaving us 3rd in the table only a point behind the leaders.

Given that Leicester host Brighton in the 7.15pm double header alongside bottom 6 clash Arsenal V Burnley, it gave me great pleasure to say that , I would say that Saints hopes of 3rd are slim, I can't see any other result in that one bar a Leicester home win, however after losing to Fulham in their last home match in the League I can't see them slipping up twice.

But Brighton are a dogged side as they showed against us and might just throw in a surprise, but I think a draw is the best we can hope for, but that would be enough to jump us up a place if we do the business against Sheffield United.

The last game of the weekend is a bottom 6 clash, underachievers Arsenal could really be looking over their shoulders if they lose to Burnley and this is the best result for us, lets be honest at some stage Arsenal are going to put a run together and they are more likely to be sixth than sixth from bottom, from this perspective we will be happy with any result other than an Arsenal win.

So where are we likely to end up, the reality is probably where we start the day, if all the games go to form then we will maintain the status quo, that won't be a bad thing, but we still need other results to go our way, the old adage is that you win your own games and don't rely on others losing, that is not strictly true, whether you are going for the League title or fighting relegation you need your rivals to lose games & drop points.

So best case scenario is 3rd, but it will take a couple of results for us to achieve that one of them a shock one.

Worst case is that we lose to Sheffield United, their is a winner in the Manchester derby, West Ham win and Everton win by at least 2 goals, that would mean 3 teams would jump above us and drop us down to 8th.

This shows how condensed the Premier League still is and it is weekend like this that usually start to sort out the wheat from the chaff, it is easy to forget that we are four games behind a normal season's schedule, last season's 11th Premier League fixture was a 2-1 defeat at Manchester City on 2nd November, after that game we had 8 points, so whatever happens this weekend we have still made massive progress.

Last season our win at Chelsea on Boxing Day took us to 21 points, but that was the 19th game of the season, so that shows how far ahead we are from a year ago.

At the moment we have to stay calm and collected, hope that results go our way and then do our own job in our fixtures.

As I mentioned in an article a few weeks ago it is not about individual games it is about reviewing it in 3 game tranches.

So far we have achieved 1.8 points average per game, if we keep that going then we will challenge for a Champions League place, but I am not going to get carried away, lets look at what we need to finish in that top six, it is not an exact science, in the last 5 seasons going back to when we were in that position ourselves on 63 points it has usually been around that mark, however it has been as low as 59 and as high as 69.

So I think 65 points is a good target, as we stand that leaves us needing 44 points from 27 games, that is around 1.62 points average per game, in any 3 game run and derivatives of, we should look at that figure to gauge our form.

In our last three games we have not met that, 4 points at 1.33 per game is short, go back 6 games though and it is 13 points from those fixtures, that's 2.16 per game.

But the hard work was done in the first half of this run.

We now have to get at least 5 points from the next three games and that will not be easy.

Photo: Action Images

halftimeorange added 10:25 - Dec 11 The EPL is very unpredictable. I usually go for the reverse of what Mark Lawrenson says as he's usually very negative over Saints chances. This weekend, however, he suggests we will win so, for me, all bets are off. Sheff U won't roll over so, unless we're off to a flyer, I expect a dour match with few goals. Of course, we have Danny back and that will help as they have nobody of his class. Come to that, nor do we.

0

underweststand added 14:30 - Dec 11 Sheffield are a better footballing side than their position suggests . YES they haven't scored many goals but they have been a vicious victim of bad luck in several games. From Saints' viewpoint this has to be a "must-win " game -- admittedly a phrase more familiar to relegation battles, but if we are to maintain our challenge for a top place we must win this sort of game, as the competition at the top is really fierce, and the top 3 -4 rarely drop points to anyone - even those around them let alone at the bottom. In recent years, our performances against some teams in the drop zone have been very poor and his can be costly to a side (apparently) " punching above their weight " and who can't afford to spend £100 million in every transfer window.

0

Blogs 31 bloggers

Southampton Polls