| Tier 2 / Tier 3 13:15 - Oct 15 with 29702 views | aleanddale |
Matt Hancock hitting a new level of incompetence today in the commons.
Press leaks prior to confirmation with local authority.... then backtracking.
Dithering over a statement on Manchester and Lancashire regarding if and when we will move to tier 3.
No doubt the whole thing is complicated beyond belief BUT there should be much clearer / decisive communication and direction from the government.
Staff on minimum wage will be getting 2/3 or just over £5 an hour on this latest job support scheme that's replacing furlough. Minimum wage is just that the minimum required to survive.
Liverpool the ONLY city on tier 3. Honestly?
Ignoring the "Science" when the science advised a NATIONAL circuit break 3 weeks ago.
My two penneth is that this is set for the long term. I read an article saying the average life expectancy is 81 and the average Covid death age is 82. It is a very very tough decision to make i do understand that but everyone knows this and the day could arrive where shielding becomes self governing and everyone makes there own choices. Maybe new Covid Laws need to be applied to allow the nation to do that and the obvious rule breakers can be hit with more severe penalty.
This is one mighty mess and the problem is that the master plan is falling well short its time for a rethink and quickly. |  | | |  |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 21:40 - Oct 21 with 2135 views | tony_roch975 |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 21:32 - Oct 21 by James1980 |
But what were the alternatives though? |
borrowing (we're now at over 100% of GDP, it was 35% in 1997) or a wealth and financial transactions tax | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 21:40 - Oct 21 with 2134 views | rochdaleriddler |
Preston pub ‘ships and giggles’ classy sounding I know, started giving away meals so that it could remain open. In steps The council, ‘this is a ruse to get round covid rules , you are not allowed to give food away ‘ . The landlord now sells meals for 1p  |  |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 21:47 - Oct 21 with 2110 views | D_Alien |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 21:40 - Oct 21 by rochdaleriddler |
Preston pub ‘ships and giggles’ classy sounding I know, started giving away meals so that it could remain open. In steps The council, ‘this is a ruse to get round covid rules , you are not allowed to give food away ‘ . The landlord now sells meals for 1p |
https://www.facebook.com/ShipsAndGiggles |  |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 23:43 - Oct 21 with 2033 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 20:44 - Oct 21 by isitme |
I completely understand the myriad of factors that make a direct year to year comparison difficult and flawed, even using five year averages is not without problems. I would not say it is ludicrous, but it has to be done with caveats and greater insights are needed to make conclusions. I would like your opinion as to why in a global pandemic death rates in the last reported week are lower than last year and in line with five year averages? I am sure you can understand why people without your level of insight look at figures and they make conclusions.
Data never gives you the answers but does pose questions and the tweet does raise a number of other issues.
What I do find interesting is since March there have been significantly fewer deaths attributed to flu than you would get historically (and no I am not saying that Covid-19 is just flu). The winter of 18/19 was significantly harsher than last winter and placed significant demands on the NHS, as you will probably be aware of more than most. If you look at total deaths that was one of the worst periods in the last 20 years. So although it has its limitations I am sure many will post stats comparing this year with last year and what some may see as the worst case scenario of a couple of winters ago. [Post edited 21 Oct 2020 20:46]
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I note you don’t ever mention the significant number of COVID deaths in March to June of this year.
Why is that? | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 23:48 - Oct 21 with 2032 views | James1980 |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 23:43 - Oct 21 by BigDaveMyCock |
I note you don’t ever mention the significant number of COVID deaths in March to June of this year.
Why is that? |
Doesn't fit the narrative? | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 09:02 - Oct 22 with 1916 views | mingthemerciless |
Hopefully the stringent conditions being applied to combat the virus will also help keep the number of flu cases down in this winter. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 9:02]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 09:11 - Oct 22 with 1898 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 09:02 - Oct 22 by mingthemerciless |
Hopefully the stringent conditions being applied to combat the virus will also help keep the number of flu cases down in this winter. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 9:02]
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Following isitme’s post, one would think that the reason flu deaths have significantly reduced since March was because of lockdown, social distancing, better hygiene and increasingly extensive mask use. A crazy hypothesis I know but there might just be something in it.
I’m expecting the next post to be the fascinating reduction in Vicks Vapour rub on a Tuesday last year.
The truth is out there...on Twitter. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 9:16]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 09:27 - Oct 22 with 1885 views | DaleiLama |
Posted by Nigeria Mark (who has professional experience on the topic) on p3 of this very thread.
"Yes. They are spread in exactly the same way, so when both are present, the restrictions imposed for COVID will have a significant effect on Flu too. Flu also has a vaccine and may be less infectious as well, so putting it all together you could see record low levels for flu for a year or 2"
For context on relative contagiousness this explains it very succinctly.
[Post edited 22 Oct 2020 9:28]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 09:41 - Oct 22 with 1876 views | isitme |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 23:43 - Oct 21 by BigDaveMyCock |
I note you don’t ever mention the significant number of COVID deaths in March to June of this year.
Why is that? |
There is no doubting the significant number of people who died after testing positive for Covid-19 during March/April and May. Using the figures you posted it is clear to see, there were thousands of them. For a few weeks the numbers were almost double the 'five year average' and significantly higher for the remaining weeks.
I do query when is a 'Covid death', actually a 'Covid death'. Remember it was not until the summer that anyone who had unfortunately contracted Covid-19 and subsequently died (from any cause) would not automatically be counted as a 'Covid death'. The work of Carl Heneghan led to a change in the most commonly used reporting measure which is now where someone who has died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test is classed as a 'Covid death'. Although not everyone who has ever had a postive test will now die of Covid-19 this measure is still flawed, for obvious reasons. Using this measure removed thousands of 'Covid deaths' from the figures when it was introduced. We are now seeing a similar story with 'Covid admissions' as anyone who tests positive within the past two weeks is classed as a 'Covid admission' regardless of why they are in hospital. Go in to hospital with a broken leg and then test positive for an infection you may well have aquired there and you are a Covid patient according to the statistics.
So to answer James' question about fitting the narrative. There is no 'narrative' per se but this is my position. There is no doubting that Covid-19 is a nasty illness and for a small minority, of often vulnerable people within society lethal. For most people who contract it the cure is to stay at home for two weeks. Many will have mild, if not no symptoms.
The things I would questions are:
1. The accuracy of the 'Covid death/admission' figures. How many people have actually died directly of or are actually in hospital because of Covid-19?
2.The accuracy of the PCR tests, especially for wide scale testing at 47 cycles.
3.Is the cure worse than the disease?
4.Is there another way in which the impact of Covid-19 can be mitigated, such as what has happened in Sweden.
It is amazing what you can find on Twitter, especially from actual doctors and other esteemed medical professionals. This one highlights an issue with the counting of 'cases'.
[Post edited 22 Oct 2020 10:11]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 10:35 - Oct 22 with 1828 views | Creepy |
Don't know if I'm being over-cynical here but, doe anyone else think it's too much of a coincidence that a week after London enters Tier 2 restrictions, the chancellor will be announcing an extra package of support for these areas. I assume that this will be backdated to the 31st July for the North West  |  | | |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 11:28 - Oct 22 with 1782 views | rochdaleriddler |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 10:35 - Oct 22 by Creepy |
Don't know if I'm being over-cynical here but, doe anyone else think it's too much of a coincidence that a week after London enters Tier 2 restrictions, the chancellor will be announcing an extra package of support for these areas. I assume that this will be backdated to the 31st July for the North West |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 11:30 - Oct 22 with 1777 views | rochdaleriddler |
I’m writing a cheque right now | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 11:50 - Oct 22 with 1753 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 09:41 - Oct 22 by isitme |
There is no doubting the significant number of people who died after testing positive for Covid-19 during March/April and May. Using the figures you posted it is clear to see, there were thousands of them. For a few weeks the numbers were almost double the 'five year average' and significantly higher for the remaining weeks.
I do query when is a 'Covid death', actually a 'Covid death'. Remember it was not until the summer that anyone who had unfortunately contracted Covid-19 and subsequently died (from any cause) would not automatically be counted as a 'Covid death'. The work of Carl Heneghan led to a change in the most commonly used reporting measure which is now where someone who has died within 28 days of a positive Covid-19 test is classed as a 'Covid death'. Although not everyone who has ever had a postive test will now die of Covid-19 this measure is still flawed, for obvious reasons. Using this measure removed thousands of 'Covid deaths' from the figures when it was introduced. We are now seeing a similar story with 'Covid admissions' as anyone who tests positive within the past two weeks is classed as a 'Covid admission' regardless of why they are in hospital. Go in to hospital with a broken leg and then test positive for an infection you may well have aquired there and you are a Covid patient according to the statistics.
So to answer James' question about fitting the narrative. There is no 'narrative' per se but this is my position. There is no doubting that Covid-19 is a nasty illness and for a small minority, of often vulnerable people within society lethal. For most people who contract it the cure is to stay at home for two weeks. Many will have mild, if not no symptoms.
The things I would questions are:
1. The accuracy of the 'Covid death/admission' figures. How many people have actually died directly of or are actually in hospital because of Covid-19?
2.The accuracy of the PCR tests, especially for wide scale testing at 47 cycles.
3.Is the cure worse than the disease?
4.Is there another way in which the impact of Covid-19 can be mitigated, such as what has happened in Sweden.
It is amazing what you can find on Twitter, especially from actual doctors and other esteemed medical professionals. This one highlights an issue with the counting of 'cases'.
[Post edited 22 Oct 2020 10:11]
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It’s funny how different people react differently to tweets like this. I automatically think I have absolutely no idea who this Dr Ron Daniels is. So, immediate caution - file in the to be treated with a massive dollop of salt. Ok, I’ll read what he’s actually got to say. Mmmm...the analogy with selling cars doesn’t actually work on any level does it? One of the reasons is that the vast majority of people who test positive will not continue to get tested every week and return positive tests. They’ll follow the 14 day quarantine advice and get better whereupon, if they decide to get another test, they will test negative. If they still have symptoms after 14 days they will likely remain in quarantine until they become symptom free and then they’ll get tested if they so chose. If they decline and are hospitalised then they are unlikely to be tested until, and if, they stop showing symptoms. Also, the analogy doesn’t work because there is only one variable in respect of the car, that is, the purchase of the car. The car is always purchased. However, there are two variables in respect of a COVID test. A test can return a positive or a negative result. A test automatically doesn’t count twice if it’s taken within 7 day intervals.
The analogy only has any resonance if people who test positive keep getting tested and keep testing positive - with seven day intervals. This may happen but I imagine it’s very few and far between given the advice you are given when you test positive. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 11:59]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 11:59 - Oct 22 with 1747 views | jonahwhereru |
The number of hospital admissions who have Covid is the key indicator as far as I am concerned. The fact is that as Covid cases increase, admissionss increase and subsequently deaths. Yesterday we where averaging 877 admissions a day. That rate of increase is not sustainable for the NHS. Already resources are being diverted from other priorities in the NHS.
The only saving grace is that the Covid precautions are actually reducing incidents of flu, which will help ease the NHS bed pressure a little but not significantly.
My father has had cancer treatment sessions postponed in the last few months. Thankfully there was no resulting condition deterioration in his case, but it hits home. So i’ll do whatever I am asked to help prevent the need for the NHS to divert resources to treat Covid. | | | |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 13:57 - Oct 22 with 1639 views | 49thseason |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 21:29 - Oct 21 by rochdaleriddler |
It was indeed a wheeze to keep the investment off the balance sheet, it is a disaster |
Even Burnham admits it wasn't his finest hour.
The PFI schools and Hospitals are technically no longer owned by the state and as such vulnerable to a government sell-off to the private sector. Even the Rochdale's LED street lighting is a PFI project which doubled the cost from £35m to over £70m repayable over 30 years and like other PFI deals, all maintenance charges etc. accrue to the council at whatever the owners of the streetlights decide to charge. Hence the crazy costs for changing light bulbs and putting in new window frames in schools because a kid scratched his name on the window cill. |  | | |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:15 - Oct 22 with 1564 views | foreverhopefulDale |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 20:44 - Oct 21 by isitme |
I completely understand the myriad of factors that make a direct year to year comparison difficult and flawed, even using five year averages is not without problems. I would not say it is ludicrous, but it has to be done with caveats and greater insights are needed to make conclusions. I would like your opinion as to why in a global pandemic death rates in the last reported week are lower than last year and in line with five year averages? I am sure you can understand why people without your level of insight look at figures and they make conclusions.
Data never gives you the answers but does pose questions and the tweet does raise a number of other issues.
What I do find interesting is since March there have been significantly fewer deaths attributed to flu than you would get historically (and no I am not saying that Covid-19 is just flu). The winter of 18/19 was significantly harsher than last winter and placed significant demands on the NHS, as you will probably be aware of more than most. If you look at total deaths that was one of the worst periods in the last 20 years. So although it has its limitations I am sure many will post stats comparing this year with last year and what some may see as the worst case scenario of a couple of winters ago. [Post edited 21 Oct 2020 20:46]
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The reason why flu rates are down is due to anti Covid measures. Flu is caught and passed on in the same way as Covid, therefore people keeping good distance from others makes it harder to pass on and catch. There will also be less infectious disease about due to the Covid measures
There have been other benefits caused as a result of Covid like air pollution reduction, due to less traffic, and less accidents due to alcohol.
Edit, just seen the other posts above about why flu levels will be down. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 15:49]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:30 - Oct 22 with 1543 views | rochdaleriddler |
If The measures announced today had been shared with Mr Burnham 2 days ago, there would have been no row. Either the Tories are playing silly games, or this new support scheme has just been worked up overnight. | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:39 - Oct 22 with 1523 views | isitme |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 11:50 - Oct 22 by BigDaveMyCock |
It’s funny how different people react differently to tweets like this. I automatically think I have absolutely no idea who this Dr Ron Daniels is. So, immediate caution - file in the to be treated with a massive dollop of salt. Ok, I’ll read what he’s actually got to say. Mmmm...the analogy with selling cars doesn’t actually work on any level does it? One of the reasons is that the vast majority of people who test positive will not continue to get tested every week and return positive tests. They’ll follow the 14 day quarantine advice and get better whereupon, if they decide to get another test, they will test negative. If they still have symptoms after 14 days they will likely remain in quarantine until they become symptom free and then they’ll get tested if they so chose. If they decline and are hospitalised then they are unlikely to be tested until, and if, they stop showing symptoms. Also, the analogy doesn’t work because there is only one variable in respect of the car, that is, the purchase of the car. The car is always purchased. However, there are two variables in respect of a COVID test. A test can return a positive or a negative result. A test automatically doesn’t count twice if it’s taken within 7 day intervals.
The analogy only has any resonance if people who test positive keep getting tested and keep testing positive - with seven day intervals. This may happen but I imagine it’s very few and far between given the advice you are given when you test positive. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 11:59]
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I would tend look at the source in this case the NHS and also who posts the tweet. I am sure that Dr Ron Daniels resume speaks for itself so in this case I would take it at face value and question what it is saying, but each to there own. I assume you clicked on the tweet and viewed the full image and not just the top part?
You do know that someone who has contracted Covid-19 can still test positive for up to 12 weeks after infection? So someone who has followed the 14 day quarantine advice and has no symptoms can still test positive for a good while, even though they are no longer 'ill' or infectious. This is one of the major limitations with PCR test being used especially at the current level of 47 cycles. The test cannot differentiate between 'live' and dead viral RNA. Reducing the cycles to say 30, which a number of other countries have done would reduce this problem somewhat.
Everyone on admission to hospital, regardless of why they are admitted is tested for Covid-19. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 15:45]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:41 - Oct 22 with 1520 views | James1980 |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:30 - Oct 22 by rochdaleriddler |
If The measures announced today had been shared with Mr Burnham 2 days ago, there would have been no row. Either the Tories are playing silly games, or this new support scheme has just been worked up overnight. |
Considering they are a bunch of overgrown school boys I know where I'd put my money. | |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:44 - Oct 22 with 1516 views | isitme |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:15 - Oct 22 by foreverhopefulDale |
The reason why flu rates are down is due to anti Covid measures. Flu is caught and passed on in the same way as Covid, therefore people keeping good distance from others makes it harder to pass on and catch. There will also be less infectious disease about due to the Covid measures
There have been other benefits caused as a result of Covid like air pollution reduction, due to less traffic, and less accidents due to alcohol.
Edit, just seen the other posts above about why flu levels will be down. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 15:49]
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Many would also argue that Covid-19 being a similar, but more infectious and lethal respiratory infection has taken a significant proportion of those vulnerable people who would have more than likely died of/with flu anyway. I do agree with your other points. | | | |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 16:16 - Oct 22 with 1491 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 15:39 - Oct 22 by isitme |
I would tend look at the source in this case the NHS and also who posts the tweet. I am sure that Dr Ron Daniels resume speaks for itself so in this case I would take it at face value and question what it is saying, but each to there own. I assume you clicked on the tweet and viewed the full image and not just the top part?
You do know that someone who has contracted Covid-19 can still test positive for up to 12 weeks after infection? So someone who has followed the 14 day quarantine advice and has no symptoms can still test positive for a good while, even though they are no longer 'ill' or infectious. This is one of the major limitations with PCR test being used especially at the current level of 47 cycles. The test cannot differentiate between 'live' and dead viral RNA. Reducing the cycles to say 30, which a number of other countries have done would reduce this problem somewhat.
Everyone on admission to hospital, regardless of why they are admitted is tested for Covid-19. [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 15:45]
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The tweet is not from the NHS though (that’s not the source) it contains some information from the NHS, it’s from somebody allegedly called Dr Ron Daniels, whose resume you have never seen.
Yes, but that’s not the case in the vast majority of cases is it? [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 16:19]
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 18:24 - Oct 22 with 1418 views | 442Dale |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 16:16 - Oct 22 by BigDaveMyCock |
The tweet is not from the NHS though (that’s not the source) it contains some information from the NHS, it’s from somebody allegedly called Dr Ron Daniels, whose resume you have never seen.
Yes, but that’s not the case in the vast majority of cases is it? [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 16:19]
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His brother Paul would sort things out. |  |
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| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 07:51 - Oct 23 with 1281 views | isitme |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 16:16 - Oct 22 by BigDaveMyCock |
The tweet is not from the NHS though (that’s not the source) it contains some information from the NHS, it’s from somebody allegedly called Dr Ron Daniels, whose resume you have never seen.
Yes, but that’s not the case in the vast majority of cases is it? [Post edited 22 Oct 2020 16:19]
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If you look at the image Ron uploaded in his tweet it is a screenshot taken directly from the .gov website and the article is produced by the NHS. If you look at the blue tick by his name on his Twitter account this means that his credentials have been verified. You cannot get a blue tick by being 'someone allegedly called Dr Ron Daniels'. I am well aware who he is and his credentials.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/author/dr-ron-daniels/
https://sepsistrust.org/about/about-the-charity/meet-the-team/
https://uk.linkedin.com/in/ron-daniels-bem-69a40722
In the UK people who have 'recovered' are not routinely tested again to prove they have by producing a negative test, probably due to demands on testing capacity and the limitations of the test. Also it would cause carnage if you had to isolate until you returned a negative test. Imagine if you couldn't leave your home for (in the worst case scenario) three months as you kept returning positive tests even though you were 'well'. More people would they start to question the accuracy of the test.
This article below highlights some of the issues of testing 'recovered' people for the magical negative test.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54628221
In the UK somebody who has tested positive would not usually be tested again unless they are being admitted into hospital (for any reasons), are being tested again to check for a false positive (the positive tests of some sports people are routinely tested again after a positive test) or if some while later they develop symptoms again. | | | |
| Tier 2 / Tier 3 on 22:22 - Oct 30 with 1108 views | 442Dale |
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