| Getting it wrong (for now) in a good way 10:45 - Jan 2 with 772 views | saint901 |
Happy New Year to all.
I predicted between 7 and 9 points from the 4 games over Christmas. Obviously I was wrong.
I also said that RM needs to sort out the problem of having all of the ball and not enough threat on the opposition goal. He is saying all the right things post match but still failing to fix the problem.
Having now though admitted that our expensive striker is not going to be fit this season (or perhaps ever again at this level) perhaps that will focus his mind on a new player or a different formation. (I have more hope of the former and none for the latter).
I don't know how many points we are missing from having drawn a game rather than won it, but I suspect enough to make the present difference between us and Ipswich much closer.
Will that cost us at the end of the season, pitching us into the playoffs (a lottery) rather than automatic promotion? I don't know and as I'm clearly not good at prediction, I'll reserve judgement until there are perhaps 5 games to go.
I do though remain of the view that RM's inflexible approach and inability to solve the possession to goals ratio is going to leave us a few percent short of promotion.
(And yes, that is a churlish attitude given an 18 game unbeaten run but it's how I feel.) |  | | |  |
| Getting it wrong (for now) in a good way on 11:11 - Jan 2 with 728 views | SaintNick |
Fair points and everyone has differing opinions and that is good.
yes we have a lot of the ball but to say we don't offer a goal threat is wrong, we are the third highest scorers in the division with 48 goals, only Ipswich with 48 and Leicester with 54 have more.
I think we will get a new striker and this will take us up a level, but to say we need a new formation is wrong in my opinion, in recent weeks RM has varied the formation from 4 at the back and then 3 central defenders with the full backs pushed on.
He has also alternated with playing a centre forward or going with just two up front, both out wide and with the likes of Joe Aribo, Stuart Armstrong or Joe Aribo coming into the central space from deep.
In the last 18 games we have dropped 12 points, in that period only Leicester have dropped lee and they have dropped only 11, from a positive point of view the reason we have overtaken Leeds and pulled right up to Ipswich is that we dont lose games, we draw them whereas both of those clubs have lost rather than drawn.
If we repeat the 6 wins and 3 draws every 9 games run and our 18 game run is mirrored in that the first 9 had 6 wins and 3 draws and the second 9 the same, then we will be promoted, we have turned more draws into wins than the other way around
I think the size and quality of our squad will be the difference between automatic and play offs, that is what we have seen over the last 9 games in the last 4 weeks or so and why Leeds and ipswich are failing.
As I pointed out above I dont think Martin has an inflexible approach, he has changed the formation both in starting line ups and during games, what he insists on is the possession based game, yes it does cost the odd goal, but it saves more when it is played well and we are now playing it well.
In the last 9 games we have scored 18 goals, an easy average of 2 per game, Leicester as highest scorers have 54 goals from 26 games thats just slightly better than that ratio at 2.08. To put it simply it's less than 1 goal over a 9 game period |  |
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| Getting it wrong (for now) in a good way on 11:40 - Jan 2 with 707 views | saint901 |
And likewise, some fair points.
Formation wise, I have seen some alterations in the starting line up but once the game is underway, it seems that the possession based plan takes over and regardless of whether we have one striker, two or midfield players arriving from deep, there remains a reluctance to do anything other than walk the ball into the net.
We have become predictable. If you break down the stats in games, we dominate (75%/80%) of the ball for around 70 minutes and then that percentage drops - a lot. This is perhaps why we seem to leak goals in the last quarter of games. The opposition has sat back, compact and then seek to break fast or press late in games.
If we were 2 or 3 goals up by then, fine. But we're usually not. It makes for a nervous end to games and as we get closer to the end of the season, I think it may cost us.
I'm not convinced that the changes in tactical formations mentioned are anything other than forced choices depending on who's available. Look at RM's comments after Norwich. He thought that that fact they changed formation to frustrate us was a "tribute" to our strength in this division. In my view it was a strategy to claim a point (perhaps 3) by holding back their best player (arguably not fully fit) until we had exhausted ourselves and run out of ideas.
It would not be first time that RM's comments seem to be in respect of game he has seen and nobody else has.
I do feel bad complaining about a lack of flexibility and tactical nous when we are on a record breaking run but I do so because RM - as I repeat - may not be 100% of what we need.
I hope (really hope) I am wrong but to get promoter here, when we have teams under the cosh we need to be ruthless and his style of play struggles with that (even though he moans about it every other match and does nothing to fix it). | | | |
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